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3
Springs
Springs
Museum of Northern Arizona
Museum of Northern Arizona
Stewardship Institute
Stewardship Institute
Springs Ecosystems and Climate Change Risk
Springs Ecosystems and Climate Change Risk
Jeff Jenness, Larry Stevens, Abe Springer, Jenn Chavez, Jeri
Jeff Jenness, Larry Stevens, Abe Springer, Jenn Chavez, Jeri Ledbetter and Molly Joyce
Jeff Jenness, Larry Stevens, Abe Springer and Jeri Ledbetter
Jeff Jenness, Larry Stevens, Abe Springer and Jeri Ledbetter
Model Agreement
Model Agreement
Average Annual Value
Average Annual Value
Model Agreement
Model Agreement
Average Annual Value
Average Annual Value
Estimated Precipitation
Estimated Precipitation
Estimated Temperature
Estimated Temperature
Annual copy
Annual
Seasonal - Winter copy
Seasonal - Winter
Seasonal - Summer copy
Seasonal - Summer
Model Agreement copy
Model Agreement
Estimated Change in Precipitation
Estimated Change in Precipitation
Annual
Annual
Seasonal - Winter
Seasonal - Winter
Seasonal - Summer
Seasonal - Summer
Model Agreement
Model Agreement
Estimated Change in Temperature
Estimated Change in Temperature
Climate Change As with everywhere else in the world, climate ch
Climate Change As with everywhere else in the world, climate change has the potential to dramatically alter conditions in the Desert LCC Region. Increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns will likely cause shifts in species ranges, fractured species communities and extinctions of species that are unable to adapt or migrate. Springs Springs ecosystems are among the most biologically rich and diverse ecosystems on earth. In the Desert LCC, springs are the local species hotspots. Not only do they attract and support species from the larger surrounding landscape, they also host a large number of aquatic or water-dependent species that can only exist at springs. Many isolated springs host species that exist only at that spring, when such species have evolved at these isolated locations over long periods of time and have long since lost gene flow with other related species. Springs, unfortunately, may be especially susceptible to damage from climate change. Springs depend on ground-water aquifers, and aquifers depend on precipitation to maintain them. Most climate models predict a decrease in precipitation in the future. Possibly more important, increased temperature and changing weather patterns will likely mean less precipitation in the form of snow, and quicker melting times for snow that does fall, meaning more of the precipitation will run off the surface into drainage systems and less will soak into the local aquifer. Global Climate Models (aka General Circulation Models) As George Box put it, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” Such is the case with climate models. Predicting future climate conditions is tricky. Climate decades from now depends on many factors that we cannot know. Climate systems may change dramatically after some threshold event, so models that worked prior to the event may not work afterwards. Often we do not know what threshold events might occur or when, so any climate model must be viewed skeptically. We can be fairly confident that they will all be wrong in the details, but they will likely give us valid and useful predictions of long-term trends. Fortunately there are a large number of climate models available, developed by a diverse group of governmental and non-governmental agencies around the world. These models are developed using the best understanding of climate dynamics available, but they use different internal methods to model interactions of climate components. Some models may work better in some areas than others, but there is no widely-accepted method to objectively rank model accuracy (Harris et al. 2014). In many cases, the best approach is to look at all models possible. Emissions Scenarios The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) attempts to tackle the problem of future uncertainty by defining sets of assumptions about future conditions. These assumptions attempt to bracket the possible range of conditions, so that models can be developed for both best- and worst-case conditions and a few intermediate conditions. For the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC 2007), these assumptions were called “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” (aka SRES scenarios) and were based on socioeconomic “story lines” that would lead humanity to produce various levels of greenhouse gas emissions. For example, the “A2” story line assumes a heterogeneous world with increasing populations and regionally variable socioeconomic conditions. For the latest IPCC 5th Assessment Report (Pachauri et al. 2014), these are called “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs). They assume different levels of greenhouse gas concentrations at the year 2100. These RCPs roughly match the conditions created by the SRES scenarios, but they produce slightly different model behavior over time (Harris et al. 2014). Downscaling One downside to most global climate models is the spatial resolution. They typically produce grids of predictions over the entire globe, and each grid cell is thousands of square kilometers in size. There are various ways to downscale these models to help predict conditions at higher resolutions (Harris et al. 2014). These methods tend to work better with predicting temperature changes than they do with fine-scale circulation patterns, though (Hall 2014). In our case, we wished to analyze conditions at the HUC-8 scale, where HUC watersheds are typically several thousand square kilometers in size. In this case the original climate model predictions were most appropriate for us, and did not require any downscaling. Multiple Models The most defensible approach to estimate future conditions is to look at projections from multiple models, under multiple scenarios. We can then predict conditions for each scenario based on the model mean or median, and as a bonus we get an estimate of model agreement from the range, standard deviation and/or inter-quartile range of model predictions. Estimating conditions for each emissions scenario lets us compare the best-case prediction with the worst-case, and gives some sense of what we can hope for given our strategy for dealing with greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis presented here only examines estimated conditions under the A2 scenario, mainly due to space constraints on the poster. However, as pointed out by Harris et al (2014), we are “currently tracking at the higher end of the A2 scenario”, so these may be more realistic projections than those conducted under the B1 scenario. However, we do incorporate 15 models to estimate future temperature conditions, and 16 models to estimate precipitation patterns. Citations Hall, A. 2014. Projecting regional change. Science 346:1461–1462. Harris, R. M. B., M. R. Grose, G. Lee, N. L. Bindoff, L. L. Porfirio, and P. Fox-Hughes. 2014. Climate projections for ecologists. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 5:621–637. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, and A. Reisinger, editors. IPCC. Pachauri, R. K., M. Allen, V. Barros, J. Broome, W. Cramer, R. Christ, J. Church, L. Clarke, Q. Dahe, P. Dasgupta, and others. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC.
Median climate model values show estimated temperatures in the
Median climate model values show estimated temperatures in the DLCC are expected to rise from 2.2° to 2.8°C under the A2 scenario. In general, summer temperatures will increase more than winter, and northern regions more than southern. Temperature change estimates tend to show strong agreement in the Big Bend region of Texas. Model variation grows progressively worse moving west and north. Estimated precipitation tends to drop almost universally across the DLCC, with the exception of the northern-most HUCs in southern Nevada. Even in that case precipitation change varies greatly by season. Precipitation in those northern HUCs are expected to increase relatively substantially in the winter, but then drop substantially in the summer. Change in winter precipitation is estimated to be much more variable across the LCC than summer, with the most severe drops occurring in the southeastern portion of the LCC. Interestingly, model agreement is almost reversed from the Temperature Change model estimates, so in this case the southeastern portion is the most uncertain.
If we continue on a trend that tracks the A2 emissions scenario
If we continue on a trend that tracks the A2 emissions scenario, and if springs are negatively affected by increasing temperatures or decreasing precipitation, then there does not appear to be much good news in store based on these climate models. Temperatures are going to increase, and summer temperatures are going to increase even more. That, coupled with a universal decline in summer precipitation, can only mean that there will be less water available to supply the springs and greater demand for the water that is available. Some regions might make up some of the water shortfall in the winter, but most areas will experience an even greater decrease in precipitation in the winter than the summer. In general, however, areas with the most extreme predictions roughly correspond with the lowest level of model agreement, and therefore are the most uncertain.
Here we show estimated temperature and precipitation conditions
Here we show estimated temperature and precipitation conditions for the years 2046-2065, under the A2 SRES scenario (i.e. the scenario with the highest projected greenhouse gas emissions).
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